Too early to tell if we're all going to die.

It can't be much fun being a volcanologist and asked by the media to comment on whether a recent swarm of small earthquakes is a sign that the Big One is on its way. You might think that the sensible reply was to point out that nobody knows.

But it seems that they don't take this option. Rather we always seem to get a stock answer that goes something like this:

" It is too early to tell if the recent swarm of small earthquakes is an indication that a larger one is to follow. We are monitoring the situation"

It all sounds reasonable doesn't it? Well yes - until you think about it a little more.

"It's too early to tell." Well what does that really mean? Are they saying that they really can answer the question except that they need a little bit more time? - "Phone me back in a couple of hours and I'll tell you if the Big One is on the way, or if it is all a false alarm." - I suspect not. Rather I suspect that they don't have a clue and that the only way they will know if the Big One was indeed the result of the swarm of smaller ones is when the Big One arrives.

"We are monitoring the situation." Ah yes the monitoring word. It does have a certain comforting flavour to it don't you think? As if someone, somewhere out there is looking after the situation and getting it sorted. But monitoring surely just means that they are continuing to record earthquakes as they occur. So what if, as a result of this monitoring, they record another thirty small quakes occuring over a period of a few days - is this portentous of the Big One?

Well no. You see it's still too early to tell.